摩根大通CEO: 或加息多达七次 政策紧缩过程未必“温和”

摩根大通CEO: 或加息多达七次 政策紧缩过程未必“温和”
知识
0 0

2022年01月15日

（纽约15日讯）华尔街最大银行的掌门人预测，美联储实际升息次数会比目前市场预估的更多，其还警告称，政策紧缩的过程不一定会像部分人可能以为的那样“和风细雨”。

摩根大通总执行长杰米戴蒙周五对分析师表示，美联储可能会加息多达七次以对抗不断上升的通胀率，但他没有透露加息会在多快时间内发生。

随着美联储多次对抗击通胀做出承诺，利率交易员已经提高了他们对美联储今年收紧政策的预期。

本周的数据显示，美国通胀率目前处于7%这一近四十年高位。掉期市场目前显示，今年料进行3-4次加息，每次幅度25基点，到2023年底累计将升息6次左右。

戴蒙称，“我预计加息次数会比市场认为的更多，很可能大于四次，也许会是六次或七次”。

“消费非常强劲，企业状况也相当好，” 戴蒙说。

“就经济增长而言，现在的局面很不错，比较显眼的负面因素就是通胀。”他认为，不能假设加息周期内经济不会增长。

因此，他对美国长期收益率没有进一步上涨感到意外。

30年期美国国债收益率目前徘徊在2.09%左右，仍处于疫情期的交易区间内，10年期国债收益率在达到1.81%后就失去了上行动力。

戴蒙认为，长期收益率最终可能对美联储缩表，也就是所谓的量化紧缩作出更多反应。目前虽然还没有正式宣布缩表时间，但市场对此的预期已经有所提前。

摩根大通的经济团队目前预测美联储将从3月开始加息，然后每季度加息一次，德意志银行和摩根史丹利等一些主要银行都认同这一观点。

美联储官员自己的预测中值是今年加息75个基点。

但这只是因为美联储在最近的周期中，倾向于采取渐进的方式来收紧货币政策，并不意味着加快紧缩是不可能的。

在对政策前景的讨论中，戴蒙回顾了前美联储主席沃尔克一口气将利率提高几个百分点的时代。

戴蒙说，“这似乎会是一个和风细雨的过程，没有人对此感到惊讶，但我觉得这种想法是错误的”。

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    – DA
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    Utilizing over-optimized anchor text too often can lead to sanctions from Bing.
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    a basic technique for efficient link building. Listed below are some suggestions:

    – Create valuable blog posts that solve typical
    issues in your industry.
    – Create visuals that show complex information in an easy-to-understand way.

    – Create extensive manuals on areas that are considered
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    ### Guest Posting

    Guest blogging is another efficient method to create high-quality hyperlinks.

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    ### Broken Link Repairing

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    ### Contact and Networking

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    technique for acquiring backlinks. Below are some steps to take:

    – Participate in forums related to your field.
    – Distribute other users’ posts and offer valuable comments.

    – Partner on joint initiatives such as ebooks.

    ### Social Media

    Promoting your content on social media can boost its
    reach and potential to get links. Interact with
    your followers on networks like Twitter and Pinterest to develop a strong digital footprint.

    ## Assessing the Success of Your Link Building Strategy

    ### Tools for Link Analysis

    Many applications are available to assist you evaluate the performance of your link
    building campaign. Some well-known applications
    such as:

    – GA
    – Ahrefs’ Site Explorer
    – Moz Pro
    – SEMrush
    – Majestic SEO

    ### Indicators to Follow

    When assessing the performance of your link building efforts,
    consider the upcoming metrics:

    – Domain Rating
    – PA
    – Amount of backlink sources
    – Quality of backlinks
    – Hits coming from backlinks

    ### Modifying Your Approach

    Depending on the data obtained from your evaluation, tweak your link building
    plan to enhance its success. This could involve concentrating on other
    categories of articles, aiming at other sites, or refining
    your communication strategy.

    ## Frequent Pitfalls in Link Building and How to Prevent Them

    ### Bad Links

    One of the frequent mistakes is obtaining low-quality links from irrelevant or spammy
    sites. Such hyperlinks can harm your website’s
    online presence.

    ### Over-Optimization

    Utilizing over-optimized link text frequently can cause sanctions from Google.
    Aim for a balanced variety of hyperlink text.

    ### Overlooking Nofollow Attributes

    While nofollow attributes do not convey ranking juice, they may still bring hits and
    improve brand awareness.

    ## Upcoming Developments in Link Building

    ### Machine Learning and Backlink Acquisition

    With the evolution of artificial intelligence, link building methods are
    turning more sophisticated. Machine learning applications can aid
    in discovering high-quality link opportunities and forecasting their impact on SEO.

    ### Voice Queries and Backlinks

    The growth of voice queries is changing the way data is consumed.
    This is likely to impact link building by altering importance to spoken queries and specific search terms.

    ## Final Thoughts

    Successful link building is a vital aspect of SEO. By grasping the
    value of high-quality links, using various techniques, and regularly monitoring your strategies, you are
    able to enhance your webpage’s credibility and reach
    greater positions on Bing.

    By staying current with the most recent trends and avoiding common mistakes, you will move through the dynamic landscape of website optimization and reach sustainable success.

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  54. ## Understanding the Significance of Link Building

    Link building entails acquiring hyperlinks from other webpages to your own. Those hyperlinks are considered
    endorsements of trust by Google. The more high-quality hyperlinks you get, the higher
    your website’s chances of ranking higher on SERPs.

    ## Kinds of Backlinks

    ### Editorial Links

    Editorial links are earned without effort from the site owner.
    These links happen when other websites see your posts relevant and reference it.

    ### Solicited Links

    Outreach links include actively acquiring links from other sites.
    This can involve emailing bloggers, requesting backlinks to your articles.

    ### User-Generated Links

    Self-Created links are created by inserting your website’s link to directories.
    Although these links might offer a fast increase, they usually
    come with limited authority and can result in punishments from Bing.

    ## Effective Link Building Strategies

    ### Content Creation & Marketing

    Creating high-quality posts that naturally attracts links is a core technique for efficient link building.
    Below are some tips:

    – Create informative articles that address frequent issues in your industry.

    – Design infographics that display detailed information in an easy-to-understand way.

    – Write comprehensive guides on topics that are thought to be valuable
    to your readers.

    ### Guest Blogging

    Guest posting is a further successful strategy to acquire high-quality hyperlinks.
    This involves producing articles for other publications in your field.
    Make sure that your guest blogs maintain top quality
    and have a link to your site.

    ### Broken Link Repairing

    Broken link building is a method that entails discovering broken links on other sites and proposing your page as a
    substitute. This not only aids the website owner fix their broken link but further gives you a valuable backlink.

    ### Connecting and Relationship Building

    Building networks with other webmasters in your niche is a
    long-term strategy for link building. Here are some steps to consider:

    – Participate in forums about your field.
    – Share other people’s posts and give valuable feedback.

    – Work together on joint efforts such as webinars.

    ### Social Networks

    Distributing your content on social networks can boost its
    visibility and potential to get links. Participate
    with your audience on platforms like LinkedIn and Reddit to develop a
    robust brand.

    ## Assessing the Success of Your Link Building Efforts

    ### Software for Link Analysis

    Numerous tools are out there to help you measure the effectiveness of your
    link building campaign. Some popular tools are:

    – GA
    – Ahrefs’ Site Explorer
    – Moz’s Link Explorer
    – SEMrush’s Backlink Audit
    – Majestic’s Tools

    ### Measures to Monitor

    When measuring the success of your link building strategy,
    look at the following measures:

    – Domain Authority
    – Page Rating
    – Quantity of linking domains
    – Authority of links
    – Visitors referred by links

    ### Adjusting Your Plan

    Based on the data gathered from your evaluation, adjust your link building
    approach to enhance its effectiveness. This could involve
    concentrating on various types of content, focusing on new websites, or improving your contact strategy.

    ## Typical Errors in Link Building and How to Overcome
    Them

    ### Bad Links

    Among the common mistakes is get poor links from
    unrelated or spammy websites. Such links might hurt your
    webpage’s SEO.

    ### Excessive Optimization

    Using over-optimized link text too often can cause penalties from search engines.

    Strive for a balanced variety of hyperlink text.

    ### Ignoring Nofollow Tags

    Although nofollow links aren’t pass SEO value, they might nevertheless generate visitors and build visibility.

    ## Upcoming Changes in Link Building

    ### AI and Hyperlink Strategy

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  72. Promoting via social networks is becoming an essential aspect of any promotional approach.
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    To succeed in social media marketing, companies should primarily create a strong presence on the appropriate platforms.
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    Coherent brand imagery, which includes graphics, color schemes, and
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    Frequent content creation ensures the community active and drives interaction.

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